You may be familiar with our weekly Moneyline Underdog article. Well, we’ve decided that this year we need to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites, which we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
Thanks to one of our beloved callers, we affectionately refer to them as “overdogs.”
After six straight splits, the crew hit the road last week. I totally stumbled upon Texas; I believe Quinn Ewers just fired another incompletion as we speak.
Meanwhile, Collin had a seemingly certain winner in Michigan State before Rutgers inexplicably scored a touchdown on a fourth and 28(!!!) prayer in double coverage with less than a minute left. It was an absolutely brutal beat, but it will happen.
Let’s end the year strong, starting with two double-digit favorites in Week 12. Hopefully we can avoid any more backdoor shenanigans.
COURSE OF THE YEAR: 11-11 +-0.9 units
Stuckey: Texas A&M-33
I’ve been consistently fading Texas A&M all season, but I think it’s time to try to catch the falling knife with an Aggies team in the midst of its first six-game losing streak in the last 50 years .
This appears to be a prime spot for the Aggies, who can vent all of their season-long frustrations on a team where they will have a huge talent gap.
Also, UMass head to College Station for their third straight game after a heartbreaking loss at Arkansas State. That’s not ideal this late in the season for a team that lacks depth. Since 2005, non-conference dogs with 20-plus points in their third straight road game are only 23-38 ATS (37.7%).
Meanwhile, Texas A&M regained some key players this week and is now two weeks away from a nasty flu outbreak that ripped through his dressing room.
After all, Jimbo Fisher has historically excelled in this regard. He’s 26-13 against the spread (66.7%) as a favorite against non-conference opponents. That includes a 15-6 (71.4%) mark when favored by 28 or more, making him the most profitable coach in that situation since 2005.
If the Aggies have any pride left, they should blow UMass out of the water in a game I’m predicting closer to -40.
UNLV travels to the island with a 4-6 overall record on the season. With a home game against unassuming Nevada to close out the year, UNLV has a great shot at getting eligible to the Bowl for the first time since 2013.
This is a massive game for the rebels who should be fully focused on this conference battle.
Also, I still don’t think the market has properly adjusted to the return of UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield. Since returning from injury, he has gone 2-0 in two one-ball losses to Fresno State and San Diego State.
The offensive just works at a much higher level with Brumfield under the middle.
Brumfield will also find plenty of success simply passing the ball to Aidan Robbins, who has rushed for 250 yards in the last two games. At that distance, he averaged over four yards after contact. That doesn’t bode well for a Hawaiian team with a bad tackle (129′).
Even with an extremely easy schedule (128th), the Hawaii defense still ranks 125th in line yards and 110th in stuff rate. UNLV should absolutely slash the warriors on the ground.
Also, Hawaii isn’t much better when it comes to defending the pass. In the season, it ranks in the bottom 20 in FBS for both coverage and pass rush.
Defensively, UNLV does a great job of preventing explosive plays that will make life difficult for a Hawaiian team struggling to maintain drives. The Rebels also have a huge advantage on finishing drives on either side of the ball.
UNLV should have no trouble moving the ball against that terrible Hawaii defense.
And don’t be surprised if the Rebels defense also generates a few takeaways against a Hawaii team that’s been struggling to keep ball and has had a plethora of turnover-worthy shots in recent weeks.
Finally, don’t be afraid of Hawaii’s home advantage. Despite all the tales of island mystique, the Warriors have only had a 26-44-2 ATS (37.1%) at home since 2011 and can’t average more than one field goal per game. Only Akron (23-42 ATS) was less profitable at home.
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