Baylor vs Texas odds
Baylor’s chances of making the Big 12 Championship Game were shattered in a heartbreaking loss to No. 4 TCU last weekend. The Bears put up a brave fight against a top-flight opponent, but narrowly fell short in the end.
Despite the ups and downs that Texas football has had this season, the Longhorns still have a shot at making it to the Big 12 championship. This would only be possible with a Texas win in that game over Baylor and a Kansas win over Kansas State.
That’s not very far-fetched, but it will take some luck on the Texas side. The Longhorns are sitting at +1000 to win the Big 12 at the time of writing.
insulting the bears
The Bears’ offense has been solid this year, largely due to their running play. Baylor ranks 22nd in offensive success rate and 27th in points per opportunity. On ground, it ranks 19th in success rate, 23rd in PPA, and 21st in explosiveness.
Baylor is running at the 30th highest rate in FBS, so it’s likely his game plan will once again focus on their strength on the ground. Texas has a strong run defense, so this could hamper the Bears’ offensive production.
Baylor has had success in the air as well, but quarterback Blake Shapen tends to let her down from time to time.
The Bears rank 20th in success rate and 34th in passing the PPA. However, they only place 85th in Passing Explosiveness. That would be the way to attack Texas, but whether Shapen can pull it off is another question.
Similar to the offense, Baylor’s defense shines in the running game. The Bears rank 45th in the Rushing Success Rate, 41st in the PPA, and 32nd in the Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.
That Bears defense needs to be bolstered if they hope to stop Bijan Robinson, who rushed for just 243 yards and four touchdowns against Kansas last weekend.
The way to target this Baylor defense is through the air. They only rank 88th in the pass rate. However, their ability to limit explosive passing plays (39th) ranks them 64th in the PPA.
Texas’ offensive season numbers are strong and that wouldn’t factor in the times Quinn Ewers was out through injury. With Ewers in play, the Longhorns were even more efficient on offense.
Overall, this team ranks 25th in Offensive Success Rate and is the 25th highest rated Offensive by SP+. It’s pretty well-rounded, with both its run and pass rates in the midfield.
Texas is also effective at attacking both ways. The Longhorns rank 26th in passing success rate and 38th in the passing PPA, compared to 31st and 27th in those two numbers when running the ball.
Behind Robinson, this Texas offense has the second-highest PFF rushing grade in the country at 93.8, though he ranks 93rd in run blocking grade. Robinson has rushed for 1,401 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, ranking sixth and fifth in the country, respectively.
This was not an overly explosive offense this year. Texas ranks 97th in Passing Explosiveness and 55th in Rushing Explosiveness, which puts them 84th overall.
With Baylor effectively preventing those explosive plays, the Longhorns can’t break away from the Bears at all unless they’re able to pull off those explosive wins.
As mentioned above, the strength of this Texan defense is directly related to how Baylor wants to attack. Texas ranks ninth in the Rushing Success Rate on defense and 13th in the Rushing PPA Allowed. It also boasts the eighth highest PFF Run Defense Grade.
The Longhorns’ only weakness against the run is allowing for explosive plays (70′), so it’s possible for one of those Baylor backs to break free on a long game.
Texas wasn’t quite as strong against the pass.
It ranks 55th in allowable success rate and 51st in PPA. The Longhorns have similar problems guarding explosive plays through the air, ranking 79th in Passing Explosiveness. However, Baylor’s pass attack isn’t strong enough to make me worry that this unit is in trouble.
Matchup analysis between Baylor and Texas
Toggle the dropdown menus below to hide or show how Baylor and Texas fit together statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. Texas Defense
Texas Attack vs. Baylor Defense
Game pace / Miscellaneous
|SP+ special teams||35||39|
|seconds per game||26.6 (70)||24.5 (26)|
|rush rate||58.5% (30)||54.2% (67)|
Data from CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Baylor vs Texas betting tip
I like this matchup for the Longhorns because the Bears can’t rely on their rushing play against this defense, and I don’t trust Shapen to take advantage of the air.
On the other hand, I believe Ewers will have an efficient day through the air when facing a Baylor team that has struggled to defend the pass this season.
SP+ set this spread at Texas -11 and I like the value this represents for the Texas -8.5 consensus spread. This is a potential disappointment point for Baylor, who came off a draining home loss a week ago while Texas is still fighting for a conference championship shot.
I would take the Longhorns to -10 in this game.