GOP wins house with Calif

Nov 16, 4 p.m

According to the Associated Press, Republican incumbent Mike Garcia of California defeated his Democratic challenger Christy Smith on Wednesday afternoon to give Republicans the last seat they needed to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

According to CNN, Garcia Smith is currently leading her race to represent the state’s 27th district by about 14,000 votes. So far, about 78% of the ballot papers received have been counted.

Garcia’s victory brought Republicans across the finish line in their attempt to regain control of the House of Representatives, meaning they are expected to finish the election with at least 218 seats — the number needed for a majority. Democrats are expected to win 210 seats, but many analysts say that number could creep up as election officials continue to count ballots in the seven pending House elections.

The Democrats win two races in California on Tuesday

Nov. 16, 7:30 a.m

Republicans are one more Race Call from officially taking control of the House of Representatives, but they were prevented from doing so on Tuesday when the Associated Press declared two of California’s eight outstanding races in favor of Democrats.

The Associated Press forecast Tuesday that Rep. Josh Harder would win re-election in the state’s 9th district, while Rep. Jim Costa would win re-election in the 21st district. Here’s a look at where things stand Monday morning and how much of the expected vote is in, according to CNN. Races that are over have the winners in bold italics.

3rd district: Republican Kevin Kiley 52.8%, Democrat Kermit Jones 47.2% (56% of expected votes)
9th district: Democrat Josh Harder (incumbent) 56.3%, Republican Tom Patti 43.7% (61% of expected votes)
13th District: Democrat Adam Gray 50.3%, Republican John Duarte 49.7% (65% of the expected votes)
21st district: Democrat Jim Costa (incumbent) 54.8%, Republican 45.2% (84% of expected votes)
22nd district: Republican David Valadao (incumbent) 52.4%, Democrat Rudy Salas 47.6% (47% of expected votes)
26th District: Democrat Julia Brownley (incumbent) 54.8%, Republican Matt Jacobs 45.2% (66% of the expected votes)
27th District: Republican Mike Garcia (incumbent) 54.2%, Democrat Christy Smith 45.8% (72% of expected votes)
40th District: Republican Young Kim (incumbent) 57.8%, Democrat Asif Mahmood 42.2% (78% of the expected votes)
41st District: Republican Ken Calvert (incumbent) 51.8%, Democrat Will Rollins 48.2% (86% of the expected votes)
45th District: Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 53.8%, Democrat Jay Chen 46.2% (83% of expected votes)
47th District: Democrat Katie Porter (incumbent) 50.8%, Republican Scott Baugh 49.2% (82% of votes expected)
49th District: Democrat Mike Levin (incumbent) 52.3%, Republican Brian Maryott 47.7% (87% of expected votes)

It’s a question of when, not if, the Republicans will be declared victorious, but the size of the majority held by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy matters. If it’s an extremely narrow majority, his path to Speaker of the House will be much more difficult. Read more from SFGATE on how final margins will impact McCarthy’s bid for speakership.

Republicans win two races in California and are poised to take over House

November 15, 8 a.m

The Associated Press named two competitive California’s Congress wins Monday night in favor of the Republican Party, bringing the party very close to taking control of the House of Representatives.

The Republicans won in California’s 41st and 45th districts on Monday, bringing their total wins to 217. With 218 seats needed for chamber control, the Republican Party is now one win away from being officially declared the winner. Here’s a look at where things stand Monday morning and how much of the expected vote is in, according to CNN.

3rd district: Republican Kevin Kiley 52.9%, Democrat Kermit Jones 47.1% (52% of expected votes)
9th district: Democrat Josh Harder (incumbent) 56.3%, Republican Tom Patti 43.7% (36% of expected votes)
13th District: Democrat Adam Gray 50.4%, Republican John Duarte 49.6% (58% of the expected votes)
21st district: Democrat Jim Costa (incumbent) 54.3%, Republican 45.7% (50% of expected votes)
22nd district: Republican David Valadao (incumbent) 52.7%, Democrat Rudy Salas 47.3% (40% of expected votes)
26th District: Democrat Julia Brownley (incumbent) 54.5%, Republican Matt Jacobs 45.5% (55% of expected votes)
27th District: Republican Mike Garcia (incumbent) 54.4%, Democrat Christy Smith 45.6% (58% of expected votes)
40th district: Republican Young Kim (incumbent) 57.8%, Democrat Asif Mahmood 42.2% (69% of the expected votes)
41st District: Republican Ken Calvert (incumbent) 51.6%, Democrat Will Rollins 48.4% (64% of the expected votes)
45th district: Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 53.8%, Democrat Jay Chen 46.2% (67% of expected votes)
47th District: Democrat Katie Porter (incumbent) 50.6%, Republican Scott Baugh 49.4% (78% of votes expected)
49th District: Democrat Mike Levin (incumbent) 52.5%, Republican Brian Maryott 47.5% (84% of votes expected)

While Republicans are now overwhelming favorites to win the House of Representatives, the size of the majority matters. As we wrote last week, his road to speakership can be bumpy when House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy only has 220 Republican seats.

Democrats need a “miracle” in California to gain control of the House of Representatives

Nov. 14, 8:15 a.m

For the Democrats to gain control of the House of Representatives, they will need almost all of their competitors California races to break in their direction.

Of the 12 most competitive races, only two have been called by the Associated Press so far: Republican Young Kim won re-election in the state’s 41st district and Democrat Julia Brownley won re-election in the 26th district. Here’s a look at where things stand Monday morning and how much of the expected vote is in, according to CNN.

3rd district: Republican Kevin Kiley 53.0%, Democrat Kermit Jones 47.0% (51% of expected votes)
9th district: Democrat Josh Harder (incumbent) 56.3%, Republican Tom Patti 43.7% (36% of expected votes)
13th District: Republican John Duarte 50.1%, Democrat Adam Gray 49.9% (46% of expected votes)
21st district: Democrat Jim Costa (incumbent) 54.6%, Republican 45.4% (49% of expected votes)
22nd District: Republican David Valadao (incumbent) 52.5%, Democrat Rudy Salas 47.5% (39% of expected votes)
26th District: Democrat Julia Brownley (incumbent) 54.3%, Republican Matt Jacobs 45.7% (54% of expected votes)
27th district: Republican Mike Garcia (incumbent) 55.4%, Democrat Christy Smith 44.6% (53% of expected votes)
40th district: Republican Young Kim (incumbent) 57.6%, Democrat Asif Mahmood 42.4% (69% of the expected votes)
41st District: Republican Ken Calvert (incumbent) 51.3%, Democrat Will Rollins 48.7% (59% of expected votes)
45th district: Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 53.7%, Democrat Jay Chen 46.3% (63% of expected votes)
47th District: Democrat Katie Porter (incumbent) 51.3%, Republican Scott Baugh 48.7% (72% of votes expected)
49th District: Democrat Mike Levin (incumbent) 52.6%, Republican Brian Maryott 47.4% (80% of votes expected)

Election expert Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report and NBC News believes that given the current results, the Democrats “Need a Miracle” to win the house. Of the remaining 10 races, he holds the 9th, 21st, 47th, and 49th districts as “likely” wins for the Democrats, the 3rd, 27th, 41st, and 45th districts as “likely” GOP wins, and the 13th and 22nd districts are draw-ups.

The Associated Press reckons Republicans won at least 212 seats; 218 are needed for a majority. So if Republicans win all four of those seats, which Wasserman classifies as a slim GOP, they only need two seats for a majority elsewhere in the country.



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